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Beijing has deployed its coast guard through the maritime area of the Diaoyu islands and military drones near outlying Japanese territory as Beijing escalates tensions over the Japanese prime minister’s comments regarding Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

On Sunday, the Chinese coast guard announced that its vessels conducted a “lawful patrol operation” through the waters of the Diaoyu islands, which are administered by Tokyo but also asserted as territory by Beijing.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 performed surveillance within the maritime jurisdiction of the Senkaku islands. This was a lawful patrol operation conducted by the Chinese maritime authorities to protect its sovereign claims,” the statement said.

Bilateral Tensions

Beijing and Tokyo have repeatedly faced off around the disputed territory but the latest activity occur during an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, addressed lawmakers that if Beijing assaults democratically ruled Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Japan.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from Takaichi.

Island's Stance

Beijing asserts the island as its own territory and plans to incorporate it under what it describes as “unification”. It has left open the military option. Taiwan’s government and citizens overwhelmingly reject the idea of Beijing's control – choosing to preserve the status quo without formally announcing independence, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if required.

An attack or invasion by Beijing would risk escalating into a international confrontation, possibly drawing in the US and other allies including Japan, which has land just 68 miles from Taiwan.

Defense Operations

On the island, the military authorities said on Sunday morning that it had observed 30 Chinese military aircraft, seven navy ships and one “official” ship, which was likely the maritime patrol, active near the territory over the previous day.

Official charts released showed up to multiple UAVs flying between the island and the Japanese islands off its north-east coast, appearing to go particularly close to the nearby Japanese island. PLA movements there are occasional, but infrequent, and Beijing's defense operations in the island's ADIZ generally has been minimal in the past month.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said Beijing had been conducting another “combined military exercise” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It added the island had sent its own aircraft and ships to monitor the situation. The island reports such Chinese patrols a few times monthly as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Political Strain

Tokyo has been experiencing increased strain from Beijing since Takaichi made her comments, with China’s consul general in Osaka prompting a formal protest from Japan by stating that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry stated that any Tokyo's involvement would be doomed to fail.

Travel and Education Advisory

On Friday, Beijing advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “suitable actions”, though it provided no details.

Multiple carriers from China announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be cancelled without penalty.

Adding to the tensions, Beijing's administration on the weekend advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it characterized as an volatile safety situation.

Although not an outright prohibition, a significant decrease in the population of learners from China could have a detrimental effect on Japanese universities. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were studying in Japan last year, according to education statistics. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the single biggest group.

Media Response

Earlier this weekend, a official press commentary charged the Japanese official with performing a diplomatic maneuver that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a limited skirmish; it would likely draw in other nations, including the United States, and could quickly spiral into a large-scale conflict with severe repercussions.”

Policy Standpoints

The government of Taiwan says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Japanese leaders have previously avoided publicly mentioning Taiwan when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also favoured by Japan's primary defense partner, the United States.

However, Beijing's governing party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “inevitable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, China has also been escalating its non-military activity and its rhetoric towards the island.